The Harvest Plan: Money First, Laws in 2029

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Written by Joseph Jackson

FMNN Investigates · Analysis · By the FMNN founder · Nov. 4, 2026

Photo: The U.S. Capitol, west front. Architect of the Capitol, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

Election results are as of the morning of Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026. Alaska, Mississippi and dozens of House races were still uncalled. This story will be updated as calls come in.

Democrats won the House and at least 54 Senate seats on Tuesday. That is enough to pass bills, but not enough to override Donald Trump's veto. Here is the step-by-step math on Medicare for All, a $20 wage, Citizens United, the Iran war and military aid to Israel.

The morning after

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla., Nov. 4, 2026 — The votes were still being counted in Alaska and Mississippi when Bernie Sanders posted the list. It has five lines: Medicare for All, a $20 minimum wage, overturning Citizens United and ending billionaire-funded super PACs, ending "Trump's war in Iran," and ending military aid to the Israeli government.

At 1:24 a.m. the AP called the House for Democrats. The Senate call had come shortly before midnight. Democrats will hold both chambers under a Republican president for the first time since 2007–08, George W. Bush's last two years. The question in Sanders' post is the one this story answers: what can that majority actually do, and how?

The short answer is that the farmers have the field but not the deed. Democrats can pass bills by simple majority. Donald Trump can veto every one of them through Jan. 20, 2029. Almost everything that gets done before then will be done through the power of the purse, privileged votes and subpoenas, not new laws that need his signature.

What you need to know

  • The new Congress is seated Jan. 3, 2027. Hakeem Jeffries is expected to be Speaker and Chuck Schumer majority leader.
  • A veto override needs two-thirds of both chambers: 67 senators and about 290 House members. Democrats will have roughly 54–56 and 251–268.
  • The Senate filibuster still requires 60 votes for most bills, unless 51 senators change the rules.
  • Some tools bypass both the filibuster and the veto in practice: must-pass spending bills, privileged resolutions that can't be filibustered, and committee subpoenas.

Part 1 — The Map: what the blue wave actually bought

The Senate. As of Wednesday morning, CBS News projected Democrats will control at least 54 seats, with Alaska and Mississippi uncalled. Democrats flipped seven Republican-held seats, per PBS and NBC News:

  • Iowa (Josh Turek), Kansas (Adam Hamilton), Ohio (Sherrod Brown)
  • Maine (Troy Jackson, over Susan Collins), North Carolina (Roy Cooper)
  • South Carolina (Annie Andrews), Texas (James Talarico)

They held Georgia (Jon Ossoff), Michigan (Abdul El-Sayed), Minnesota (Peggy Flanagan) and New Hampshire (Chris Pappas). Alaska, Mary Peltola vs. Sen. Dan Sullivan, is too close to call. Mississippi, Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith vs. Scott Colomb, was near a tie in DDHQ's count. In Florida's special election, Republican Ashley Moody won and serves through early 2029. Democrats open the new Senate with 54, 55 or 56 votes.

The House. As of Wednesday morning, AP had called 228 seats for Democrats and 139 for Republicans, with 68 uncalled. NBC's Decision Desk projects about 258 Democratic seats, which it says would be the party's widest margin since 1993. CBS estimates 251–268. In Florida, AP projected Democratic pickups in the 14th and 22nd districts, both drawn to favor Republicans.

The veto wall. Trump told CBS News before polls closed that his "ultimate power" is the veto, and that he welcomes the "Mr. Veto" label. On these five issues, no Republican bloc big enough to override exists:

  • Senate: 67 votes, so Democrats need 11 to 13 Republicans.
  • House: about 290 votes, so a 258-seat caucus needs about 32 Republicans.

The toolbox

ToolVotes neededFilibuster?Veto?Best use
Regular billHouse 218; Senate 60 to end debateYesYesRecord votes now; law in 2029
Rule change ("nuclear option")51 senatorsEnds itN/AClears the 60-vote bar; Trump still vetoes
Budget reconciliationSimple majorityNoYesTaxes and spending only; the Byrd rule cut the $15 wage in 2021
War Powers joint resolutionSimple majority; privilegedNoYesForced, recorded votes on Iran
Arms-sale disapproval (AECA)Simple majority; privileged in SenateNoYesBlock specific sales to Israel
Spending limits in must-pass billsMust pass to keep government openYes, in SenateVetoing means a shutdownThe real leverage
Constitutional amendmentTwo-thirds of both chambers + 38 statesN/ANo role for presidentCitizens United
Oversight and subpoenasCommittee majorityNoNoThe war, arms transfers, dark money

The filibuster question. Fifty-one senators can end the 60-vote rule for legislation. Doing it in 2027 buys little, because Trump still vetoes. Reports that Schumer will "likely" go nuclear come from partisan commentary, not from Democratic leaders. There's also a wrinkle: several winners, including Juliana Stratton (Illinois) and Hamilton (Kansas), said they won't back Schumer as leader, The Hill reported.

Analysis: Hold the full filibuster fight until there's a president who will sign bills, likely January 2029. Spend 2027–28 on the tools in the bottom half of that table.

Part 2 — The Paycheck and the Doctor

Medicare for All

The bill exists, but it has never once been voted on. The Medicare for All Act of 2025 is H.R. 3069 (Reps. Pramila Jayapal and Debbie Dingell) and S. 1506 (Sanders). It launched with 104 House and 16 Senate cosponsors, per Rep. Dingell's office. Versions have been filed since 2003, and none has had a committee markup or floor vote. El-Sayed, a physician who ran on single-payer, now joins Sanders in the Senate.

The public is closer than Congress. In KFF's September 2026 poll, 66% favored a national single-payer plan, KFF's highest in a decade. That support softens fast: 64% opposed it if it raised taxes. Axios-Ipsos, asking about "largely replacing private health insurance," found 43% support, 24% oppose and 32% unsure.

What it costs depends on what hospitals get paid.

  • A 2020 CBO working paper modeled five designs. National health spending in 2030 ranged from $0.7 trillion lower to $0.3 trillion higher, roughly a wash. Federal spending, though, rose $1.5–3.0 trillion in 2030 alone.
  • The Mercatus Center (2018) put new federal spending at $32.6 trillion over 10 years. The Urban Institute (2019) put it at $34.0 trillion.
  • The savings come from paying Medicare rates. RAND (2024) found commercial insurers pay hospitals 254% of Medicare. Cutting that is where the savings and the hospital lobby's opposition both come from.

A $20 minimum wage

The federal minimum is $7.25 and hasn't moved since 2009, the longest stretch in its history. The Raise the Wage Act of 2025 (Rep. Bobby Scott, Sanders) phases to $17 by 2030, then indexes to median wages. It launched with 142 House and 32 Senate cosponsors.

No federal bill reaches $20. Sanders' post goes past his own legislation, so a $20 bill must be written and scored from scratch. Florida voters already raised the state wage to $15 as of September 2026 through 2020's Amendment 2.

The job-loss dispute is real. CBO's December 2023 score of $17 by 2029 found about 400,000 people lifted from poverty and an average loss of 700,000 jobs (SHRM summary). By CBO's own methods, $20 would likely score worse; that's FMNN's inference, not a CBO number. The Economic Policy Institute disputes CBO's job-loss assumptions. The business-backed Employment Policies Institute projects larger losses.

Why it failed before

  • 2010, the ACA: the public option died to win the 60th vote, Joe Lieberman. The last senator needed sets the ceiling.
  • 2021, the $15 wage: the parliamentarian ruled it out of reconciliation. The waiver vote failed 42–58, with eight members of the Democratic caucus voting no (The Hill). Three of them, Chris Coons, Maggie Hassan and Angus King, are still senators.
  • 2021–22, Build Back Better: it passed the House and died on Joe Manchin's no.

Step by step

  1. Jan.–Mar. 2027, House: hold the first-ever Medicare for All markup. Pass Raise the Wage on the floor with 218 votes, rewritten to reach $20 with indexing.
  2. 2027, Senate HELP Committee: order fresh CBO scores of S. 1506 and a $20 wage. Force a recorded vote.
  3. 2027–28, deals Trump may sign: restore the expired ACA premium subsidies and reverse the Medicaid cuts, both on Jeffries' 100-hour list. Push a Medicare buy-in at 50 or 55. Offer a regionally indexed wage floor as the bargaining chip.
  4. 2027–28, states: back wage ballot measures in initiative states, the way Florida got to $15.
  5. Jan. 2029, with a Democratic president: use reconciliation for Medicare for All's financing and coverage core, since taxes and spending survive the Byrd rule. The wage needs a different parliamentarian ruling, 60 votes or a rule change.

Part 3 — The Money: Citizens United and the super PACs

This is the hardest item on the list. Trump has no veto over a constitutional amendment, but the amendment needs 67 senators, about 290 House members and 38 state legislatures. No sitting Senate Republican cosponsors it.

The bills on the shelf.

  • The Democracy for All Amendment: S.J.Res.43 (Sen. Jeanne Shaheen), with 41 cosponsors per GovTrack, and H.J.Res.121 (Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon), with 46. Neither has moved out of committee.
  • The DISCLOSE Act of 2026: S.3991 (Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse) and H.R.7802, sponsored by Pappas, now senator-elect. In the last Senate test, on Sept. 22, 2022, it failed 49–49 to end debate, with every Republican present voting no.

The Court is moving the other way. On June 30, 2026, in NRSC v. FEC, the Supreme Court struck down limits on coordinated party spending, 6–3. Any new law limiting independent spending would face the same six justices.

The states just moved. On Tuesday, Montana voters passed I-194, "The Montana Plan", with about 65% Yes in the partial count. It uses state corporate-charter law to bar Montana-chartered companies from spending on state elections, starting Jan. 1, 2027. Expect a lawsuit claiming it conflicts with Citizens United. Advocacy groups count 22 or 23 states that have passed resolutions calling for an amendment; they don't agree on the exact number.

The public agrees across parties. A 2018 Pew survey found 77% want limits on campaign spending, including 71% of Republicans and Republican leaners.

Step by step

  1. 2027, hearings: House Administration and Senate Rules examine 2026 outside spending. AIPAC's United Democracy Project alone spent over $60 million in Democratic primaries.
  2. 2027, House floor: pass DISCLOSE with 218 votes and force a Senate vote. Disclosure is the most legally durable reform; even the Citizens United ruling upheld disclosure 8–1.
  3. 2027–28, spending bills: use the bill that funds the FEC to fix its deadlocks, tighten super PAC coordination rules and bar spending by foreign-owned companies, which draws some Republican support.
  4. 2027–28, states: defend I-194 in court and copy it in other ballot-initiative states.
  5. 2027–28, the amendment: hold a House vote on H.J.Res.121 so every member is on record.
  6. 2029 and after: pass DISCLOSE and small-donor public financing after a rule change. The deeper fix is a different Supreme Court majority, and that's a decade-long project unless Republicans move.

Part 4 — The Wars: Iran and military aid to Israel

These two items are the most achievable on the list, because Congress controls the money that pays for them.

The Iran war

The U.S. and Israel struck Iran on Feb. 28, 2026, in Operation Epic Fury. A Pakistan-mediated ceasefire began April 8. A June agreement collapsed, and U.S. strikes resumed June 26. As of Sept. 15, the Congressional Research Service counted 18 Americans killed and 824 wounded. Congress has passed no authorization. On the eve of the election, the U.S. struck Iranian targets on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, which it called defensive (wire report via the Manila Times). Qatar-mediated talks continue.

The vote record. The Senate has voted on Iran war powers 14 times and passed one resolution once: 50–48 on June 23 (ABC News). It was a concurrent resolution, which never goes to the president and doesn't bind him. On Sept. 24 a binding version failed 49–50 (NPR). Republicans Rand Paul, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Thom Tillis voted yes. John Fetterman was the only Democrat voting no.

What changes in January: that 49–50 loss becomes a comfortable win. Collins lost, and Tillis's seat went to Cooper, but Paul and Murkowski stay. Trump will still veto it, and an override needs 67.

Military aid to Israel

The 2016 agreement covers fiscal 2019–2028 at $3.8 billion a year: $3.3 billion in weapons financing and $500 million for missile defense (State Department). Supplementals pushed fiscal 2024 to $12.5 billion, per CRS.

Trump's own announcement. On Nov. 3, Trump told Fox News the roughly $4 billion a year in aid ends at the end of 2026 because Israel "doesn't need it" (CNN). Israeli officials said they were surprised. The Atlantic Council's Thomas Warrick predicts it probably won't happen by year's end. The administration has also announced more than $20 billion in arms transfers. Treat the pledge as unverified until it shows up in budget documents.

The arms-sale votes are climbing. Disapproval resolutions are privileged in the Senate, so they can't be filibustered:

VoteResultYes votes
April 15, 2026: $295M in D9 bulldozersFailed 40–5940
April 15, 2026: $151.8M in 1,000-lb bombsFailed 36–6336
July 2025Failed27 of 47 Democrats
April 2025Failed 15–8215

Sources: Roll Call, The Intercept. Since 1974, only one of 127 disapproval resolutions has been enacted, per CRS.

Step by step

  1. Jan. 2027, House, first 100 hours: pass the Jeffries-promised resolution ordering an end to the Iran war or a request for authorization.
  2. Jan.–Feb. 2027, Senate: pass the binding companion. When Trump vetoes it, hold the override vote so every Republican goes on record.
  3. Spring–Sept. 2027, the real lever: write a funding ban into the fiscal 2028 defense spending bill and NDAA, modeled on the 1973 Case-Church amendment that ended the money for Vietnam. Bar funds for offensive operations against Iran without authorization, with exceptions for defending U.S. troops and evacuations. Refuse to pass government funding without it. Trump can sign it or own a shutdown.
  4. 2027, Israel: force a disapproval vote on every offensive arms notification. Condition weapons financing on certified compliance with the Leahy Laws and Section 620I. Split defensive aid (Iron Dome, David's Sling, Arrow) from offensive bombs; that's the compromise most likely to hold the caucus together. Write Trump's "end of aid" pledge into the bill and dare him to object.
  5. 2027–28, oversight: subpoena hearings on the war's legal basis, its cost and casualties, and whether arms transfers follow U.S. law.
  6. 2028–29: the aid agreement expires after fiscal 2028. A president inaugurated in 2029 decides whether there's a successor. That is where "end military aid" actually gets decided.

Likely holdouts: Fetterman on both. Also, as many as 19 Democrats who voted no in April, and incoming centrists who aren't on record. Possible Republican allies: Paul and Murkowski on war powers, and the seven House Republicans who backed the September resolution.

The timeline, Jan. 2027 to 2029

WhenStepVotes neededLikely outcome
Jan. 3, 2027New Congress seated—Jeffries Speaker, Schumer leader
Jan.–Feb. 2027House 100-hour bills: Iran resolution, ACA subsidies, Medicaid cuts reversed218Pass the House
Feb.–Mar. 2027Senate Iran war powers joint resolution51, privilegedPasses; vetoed; override fails
Spring 2027Disapproval votes on new offensive arms sales to Israel51, privilegedCoin flip to pass; vetoed
2027House passes Raise the Wage at $20, DISCLOSE; first Medicare for All markup218Stall at 60 in the Senate
Sept. 30, 2027Iran funding ban and Israel aid conditions in the funding bills and NDAAMust-pass leverageBest chance for real law
2027–28Subpoenas on the war, arms and dark moneyCommittee majorityOngoing
2027–28State ballot measures on wages and corporate election spendingState votersIncremental wins
Nov. 2028Presidential election; a third of the Senate—Decides everything below
Jan. 2029Rule change; reconciliation for Medicare for All; the wage51Only with a Democratic president
2029 and afterThe amendment; Supreme Court appointmentsTwo-thirds + 38 statesLong-term

The scorecard

Agenda itemBefore Jan. 2029After Jan. 2029, with a Democratic president and no filibusterOdds
End the Iran warMedium: funding limits in must-pass bills; a settlement could make it mootHighMost achievable
End military aid to IsraelLow to medium: conditions on offensive arms; full cutoff unlikely unless Trump keeps his own pledgeMedium: the agreement expires after fiscal 2028Second
$20 minimum wageVery low federally; states can moveMedium for $17–$20 phased in; the Byrd rule is the hurdlePlausible long-term
Medicare for AllVery low: record votes, buy-in and public-option stepsLow to medium: needs every Democratic senatorHard
Overturn Citizens UnitedVery low: disclosure and FEC fixes, maybeLow: needs Republicans or a new CourtHardest

The scorecard is FMNN's analysis of the record above.

The other side

On health care, critics say moving about $2.8 trillion a year onto the federal books in year one means historically large tax increases, including on the middle class. About 157 million people under 65 have employer coverage, per KFF, and lower payment rates could squeeze rural hospitals. Our answer: the cost dispute is real and turns on hospital prices. That's why the step-by-step path runs through buy-ins and subsidies first.

On wages, CBO and the Employment Policies Institute say higher floors cost jobs; the Economic Policy Institute says CBO overstates it. The record doesn't settle the size of the effect at $20.

On campaign money, the ACLU has argued in past Congresses that the amendment would let incumbents regulate political speech, including by unions and nonprofits. The Citizens United majority held that independent spending doesn't corrupt. Supporters answer that super PACs have erased the line between independent and coordinated spending. That's a genuine dispute.

On the wars, supporters of the strikes argue Iran's nuclear program and its attacks on shipping justified force, and that congressional votes weaken U.S. leverage in talks. The White House calls the War Powers Act unconstitutional. Foreign Relations Chair Jim Risch argued blocking arms would signal abandonment of an ally under Iranian fire. The split between defensive and offensive aid is the answer to that last point.

Voices of resistance

In Montana, voters didn't wait for Congress. They put I-194 on the ballot knowing it would draw a lawsuit claiming it conflicts with a Supreme Court ruling, and they passed it by about 115,000 votes (Fortune).

Reading the pattern

  • Reform, then rollback: the Court's 6–3 NRSC ruling in June widened the money channel just as reformers push to narrow it.
  • Accountability delayed and partial: 14 Senate votes on the Iran war produced one non-binding win, and one of 127 arms-sale disapprovals has ever become law.

The harvest

The harvest from Tuesday won't come in one season. The House can pass all five bills by spring, and the Senate can force the votes that put every senator on record. But until 2029, the crop that actually gets cut is the one Congress pays for: the war budget and the weapons line. Everything else is planted now and reaped in 2029, if voters hand Democrats the White House to go with the field.

Sources

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