Thursday is the last warm day for a while. A cold front brings a few showers tonight, then dry, breezy air and the coolest mornings of the season so far. Brooksville and Dade City could see the low 40s by Saturday morning.
By Joseph J. Jackson | TAMPA BAY (Nov. 12, 2026)
Forecast as of the National Weather Service Tampa Bay office's 7 p.m. Wednesday update. Check back: we'll update this story if it changes.
The short version
Today: Mostly cloudy, high near 79 in Tampa. Enjoy it.
Tonight: A line of showers moves in off the Gulf, mainly between 10 p.m. and 1 a.m. Rain chances are 30% to 40%, with less than a tenth of an inch.
The weekend: Sunny and dry. Highs only in the mid-60s Saturday. Lows near 50 in Tampa both mornings, and in the low 40s north and inland.
Today and tonight
Thursday stays mostly cloudy and mild, with a high near 79 in Tampa and 78 in St. Petersburg. Light west winds pick up a little in the afternoon.
The cold front crosses the area tonight. The weather service expects a line of showers to move southeast off the Gulf after dark, mainly between 10 p.m. and 1 a.m. in Tampa, with a 40% chance in St. Pete. Rain totals should stay under a tenth of an inch. Behind the front, winds turn to the northwest.
Friday: Breezy and cooler
Friday is sunny, with highs around 70 to 73. North-northwest winds run 7 to 15 mph, with gusts near 20 mph. It will feel noticeably drier: the weather service expects afternoon humidity to drop into the upper 30s north of Tampa.
The weekend, town by town
Here are the weather service's forecast highs and morning lows for the cold stretch. Saturday is the chilliest afternoon.
Tampa: Friday 72. Saturday morning low around 50, high near 66. Sunday morning low around 49, high near 74.
St. Petersburg: Friday 71. Saturday morning 55, high 66. Sunday morning 54, high 74.
Brooksville: Friday 70. Saturday morning 42, high 65. Sunday morning 43, high 73.
Dade City: Friday 70. Saturday morning 42, high 65. Sunday morning 45.
Lakeland: Friday 71. Saturday morning 46, high 65. Sunday morning 48, high 73.
Sarasota: Friday 73. Saturday morning 54, high 67. Sunday morning 52.
No freeze or frost is in the forecast for the Tampa Bay area.
What it means for you
Bring a jacket to the St. Pete Pier. Fin Fest runs Friday through Sunday at Spa Beach Park. Friday night on the water will be in the 50s with a north wind around 15 mph.
Boaters: North to northwest winds reach cautionary levels on the Gulf Friday and Friday night, then ease to northeast for the weekend. The weather service says stronger easterly winds could return Sunday night into Tuesday, possibly at advisory levels.
Dry air: Inland humidity drops into the mid to upper 30s Saturday. Be careful with outdoor burning.
Pets and plants: Lows in the 40s up north are cold for outdoor pets. Bring them in at night. Most plants will be fine.
Cold weather shelters
As of Wednesday night, FMNN found no cold weather shelter openings announced by Tampa Bay counties for this weekend. Tampa and St. Petersburg aren't forecast to reach 40 degrees. Hernando and east Pasco could come close.
Under their usual rules, Hillsborough opens its cold weather shelters when the weather service forecasts temperatures, with wind chill, at or below 40, and Pinellas opens its cold night shelters when the "feels like" temperature drops below 40. If you or someone you know needs a warm place to stay, call 211. We'll post shelter locations here if counties open them.
What's next
It warms up quickly. Sunday afternoon is back in the mid-70s, with clouds returning Sunday night as winds turn east.
Sources
National Weather Service, point forecasts for Tampa, St. Petersburg, Brooksville, Dade City, Lakeland and Sarasota (issued 6:42 p.m. Nov. 11, 2026) — https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=27.9506&lon=-82.4572
National Weather Service Tampa Bay, Area Forecast Discussion (7:02 p.m. Nov. 11, 2026) — https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TBW&issuedby=TBW&product=AFD
Tampa Free Press, Hillsborough cold weather shelter threshold — https://www.tampafp.com/cold-snap-prompts-hillsborough-county-to-open-emergency-shelters-monday-and-tuesday/
ABC Action News, Pinellas cold night shelter threshold — https://abcactionnews.com/news/region-pinellas/cold-weather-shelters-open-in-pinellas-and-hillsborough-counties
Photo: Clear skies over the Hillsborough River at the Kennedy Boulevard bridge in downtown Tampa. DanTD via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
